2019-09-22 13:37:57 来源:参考消息网 责任编辑:余诗泉
这部丛书确实达到了为南宋正名、为南宋“翻案”、还原一个真实的南宋的目的,也为杭州打好“南宋牌”奠定了坚实的理论基础。

Life Is Actually Better Than It Has Ever Been for Humans

人类生活处于有史以来最佳状态

Mohadesa Najumi 穆哈德莎·纳朱米

I was once an eco-pessimist. I'll admit it. I believed that the world was doomed and humanity was stunting its own growth. I could not have been further from the truth. It is now a popular trend to jump on the doomsayer bandwagon and depict the world as a tale of woe. Not only is this trope detached from reality, more importantly it is not based on evidence.

The non-monotonicity of social data provides an easy formula for news outlets to accentuate the negative. Then there is the availability heuristic, which stipulates that the more vivid, gory or upsetting a story is, the more people will overestimate how likely it is in the world.

Here are my gripes with the doomsayers: technology has reduced the need for physical labour, mortality rates are down, IQ scores are on the rise, wars are less frequent and deadly, markets are overflowing with food, critics of the powerful are not jailed or shot and the world's knowledge is available in a shirt pocket –and yet, these triumphs are unsung.

In the experience of those in less fortunate parts of the world, war, scarcity, disease, ignorance and lethal menace are a natural part of existence. However,the world has made spectacular progress in every single measure of human wellbeing and here is the shocker: almost no one knows about it.

In the mid-18th century, life expectancy for the world as a whole was 29 years. By 1950, it had grown to around 60 in Europe and the Americas. In Kenya, life expectancy has increased by almost 10 years between 2003 and 2013. The global child mortality rate has fallen from 18 to 4 percent.

In just two decades, poor countries such as Bangladesh and Kenya have seen the rate of stunting child growth cut in half, according to Harvard psychology professor Steven Pinker, in his book Enlightenment Now. What's more, vulnerability to famine appears to have been virtually eradicated from all regions outside of Africa. Pinker observes that the 20th century will go down as the last during which millions of people died due to lack of access to food.

This is not to say that war is any less haunting or tragic for those who are affected by violence today. For instance, over 11 million people are currently in need of emergency aid in war-torn Syria and the country produces more refugees than any other nation. Malnutrition is also a universal issue with 20 million babies being born underweight each year globally. A third of child deaths in the world are as a result of malnutrition.

Indeed, the idea that the world is better than it was and can get better still fell out of fashion among the clerisy long ago. It is probably the reason why you have heard of The Idea of Decline in Western History,but the book Infinite Progress: How the Internet and Technology Will End Ignorance, Disease, Poverty, Hunger, and War does not ring a bell. In fact, recent Pulitzers in nonfiction have been given out to four books on genocide, three on terrorism, two on cancer and one on extinction, while no books on progress have been recognised with a major prize.

Whether or not the world really is getting worse,the nature of news will interact with the nature of cognition to make us think that it is. Pinker argues that the reason for this could be that “optimists sound like they are trying to sell you something”. Whatever the case may be, knowledge of science is a moral imperative because it can alleviate suffering on a global scale by curing disease,feeding the hungry, saving the lives of infants and mothers, and allowing women to control their fertility.

I put eco-pessimism down to ignorance – a shortfall of knowledge of how best to solve our problems. The solution to eco-pessimism? Enough intellectual honesty to admit that now is the best time to be alive than at any point in human history. Life is getting better, there is just no way around it.

我一度是生态悲观主义者,我承认。我认为世界在劫难逃,人类在阻碍自身发展。我错得不能再错了。现在的流行趋势是赶灾难预言家的时髦,把世界说得悲惨不堪。这种说法不仅脱离现实,更重要的是,它毫无依据。

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